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18 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: AUD/USD strategy profile – Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - There is little to distract markets ahead of Wednesday’s Q1 CPI, which we see at a muted 0.5% q/q average core, no barrier to RBA easing whenever they believe demand needs a boost. Markets are closed Thursday for ANZAC Day.
Gold isn’t going to drop 9% every day, as it did on Monday the day that produced the bulk of AUD/USD decline in the past week. However, China’s GDP report was flat out disappointing and weakness in base metals, most notably copper, is hardly encouraging. Fair value estimates have slid into the mid- 0.90s. “With spec positioning still puzzlingly long last week and pricing for RBA easing returning to -40bp, AUD/USD should test the 1.0200 area in the week ahead, which is now also our one month target.” suggests Global FX Strategist at Westpac.
Gold isn’t going to drop 9% every day, as it did on Monday the day that produced the bulk of AUD/USD decline in the past week. However, China’s GDP report was flat out disappointing and weakness in base metals, most notably copper, is hardly encouraging. Fair value estimates have slid into the mid- 0.90s. “With spec positioning still puzzlingly long last week and pricing for RBA easing returning to -40bp, AUD/USD should test the 1.0200 area in the week ahead, which is now also our one month target.” suggests Global FX Strategist at Westpac.