US: All eyes on labor market data - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that today there are two readings of the US labor market for investors today. 

Key Quotes

“First are the weekly jobless claims.  This is the closest thing to a real time check of US jobs.  There has been some deterioration in recent weeks, which is partly a function of strike activity.  The four-week moving average has risen to 278k, its highest level since the end of January.  Second, is the ADP estimate for private sector employment.  The median forecast on Bloomberg is for an increase in ADP from 156k in April to 173k in May.

Note the ADP trend.  The three-month average is 185k, while the six-month average is near 205k.  While the weekly jobless claims are noisy, and may be distorted by a labor dispute at Verizon, the slowing trend of ADP cannot be simply dismissed.  However, as full employment in the US is approached, slower job growth is anticipated, including by policymakers.”